Thursday, February 17, 2005

The Pop Fan Theory!

Disclaimer - The following post is about a theory that has been giving the author sleepless nights for the past few days. The research and statistics are purely hypothetical and are not attributed to anything on the web or elsewhere. Cynics and people who cant understand good humor are forewarned.

We all use so many products in our lifetime that it becomes too difficult to keep count. Not that it really matters, but it does gives you an idea of the kind of evolution that we tend to take for granted. Take for example - cars. I remember way back when I was little, the kind of cars that kissed the road were very different from those that we see today. They were rather boxy in shape and "beauty" was a word that only a rare breed had the privilege of being called. If you look at cars today, they are trendier, a whole lot more attractive and technologically more advanced. So, the whole "product evolution" thingie makes for an interesting study. The same can be applied to shoes, watches and almost everything that you can think of.

But have you ever wondered about one product thats so ubiquitous and almost spans a lifetime. Yes, the fan!

I've always wondered how fan manufacturers make their money. Its interesting because you almost never replace a fan. Majority of the people buy fans (the ceiling variety in particular) while constructing or renovating buildings. Some of these are also passed on to future generations. So that actually gives very little scope for these manufacturers to make any money. Lets do a little hypothesis to understand the situation better - say of the 1.02 billion people in India, about 30% of these stay in cities and the rest 70% in villages. Out of that 70%, say 50% of them have pucca houses and have access to electricity. Putting down the relevant numbers and doing the arithmetic , you'll find thats its a very small percentage. And for a product that usually lasts a lifetime, it can be a cause of worry for the manufacturers. So, how do these manufacturers survive? Well, it really simple - apply "The Pop Fan Theory", which is as follows..

The Pop Fan Theory [beta 0.1] states that the construction of buildings is proportional to the rise in population which inturn creates the need for more fans.

In other words...

Rise in population = more homes = need for fans = more sales

Inference : If you want to sell more fans, increase the population!

Well, I'm not going to delve into how these faceless manufacturers are conspiring the "increasing population" bit, lest I get into any political turmoil. However, feel free to add to the TPFT and refine it.


At 7:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

oh yes...your sooooooo your really the hell did you realize that... you know what you should be in harvard

At 9:45 PM, Anonymous Sid said...

Interesting observation. Actually, it does make sense - the fan sales I mean

At 10:33 PM, Anonymous Farah said...

I dont think these fan manufacturers make ceiling fans alone. There are engine fans, cooler fans, exhaust fans, table fans, etc. All of these could be contributing to their revenues.

At 10:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not bad - but 50% of the Indians have pakka houses? - I wonder!

At 1:36 AM, Blogger adel said...

anon1 : Thanks mate. That boosted my confidence up one notch!

Farah : You're right. To be honest, when I postulated the theory, it applied only to the ceiling fan manufacturers. Nevertheless, thanks for the insight!

anon2 : Ok, I may have goofed that up, but its still "hypothetically" speaking..

At 3:56 AM, Blogger Nish said...

More Population = More Unemployment = More Powerty = Less Income = Less Sales in Fans

Better way is to make a fan that stop working after say 2 years or so.

so fans stop working then a new fan should be bought by the customer.
Applying the theory from the movie " a beautiful mind"(donno that guys name too lazy to google) all the the fan makers have a pact to make bad fans in a rotation so they do whats good for them and a the fan industry so everyone is happy.

At 10:16 PM, Anonymous John said...

Adel , good observation,jus addin a point -> more buildings = more fans , true , but itz not a 1 to 1 relation. Cos according to todays trend - a good proportion of the buildings comin up, are the results of IT sector giants expandin their kingdom !! And very rarely do u see a single fan,in any IT companies' HUGE complexes .. Itz fully airconditioned.. So no fans!! Another blow to the fan manufacturers right ?? :-)

And if IT industry keeps growing, more n more HUGE IT buildings come up - which means - lesser space to build independent homes - which means - fan production stands still :-)
So another point to the "pop fan theory" - not only do fan manufacturers try to increase population, they try to bring down the IT revolution - so can it be modified to " Pop IT Down Fan Theory " ?? :-) IT can be taken in both senses as 'it' or I.T :-)

And this observation triggers yet another crucial point.. IF Fan maufacturers try to bring down the IT industry, arent we the ones who are affected ?? So we'll have to wary of these ppl! Hence, who cares if fan manufacturer's are suffering - let them ... :-) jus a thought .. nothin serious

At 11:20 PM, Blogger adel said...

nish : Interesting point. But if you were to observe the number of BPOs that are springing up these days and the alternate (un-orthodox)careers that people are opting, I think the 'unemployment' factor can be less significant.

Regarding fans with a shorter life span, remind me of the mosquito repellent companies. There's this old joke that the mosquito repellent manufacturers are the same ones who are breeding mosquitoes so as to create a market for their products!

john : LOL! Actually, its how you look at it.. More IT organizations equates to a greater influx of people in an area. This results in more construction of buildings (high rise apartments) and therefore more fans! On the contrary, are these fan manufacturers secretly promoting the IT industry? I wonder!

At 6:15 PM, Blogger tonto41 said...

Nice site I too have a ceiling fans site at ceiling fans ciao


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